Each year the NFL Draft becomes increasingly more difficult to predict. The Raiders, being in the Top-10 the last several years, have not helped the process as they consistently remain the organization that is most likely to throw a wrench into Round 1.
Last year I referenced Mel Kiper Jr.'s job as the preeminent NFL Draft Analyst for ESPN. Well, the 'Worldwide Leader' apparently feels that one person analyzing this two-day event for the entire year is not enough, hiring Todd McShay from STATS Inc. to do the same thing. These two geniuses have combined to go 0-for-2 on the first overall pick as the Dolphins signed OT Jake Long (Michigan) the Tuesday before the draft.
Kiper penciled in LSU defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey to go No. 1 to Miami while McShay had Virginia defensive end Chris Long heading to South Beach. If these two can spend 363 days a year looking at film, workouts and measurements and still be dead wrong about the most analyzed pick in the draft, then the idea of predicting the draft should be taken as seriously as their jobs: not very.
Although predicting the draft is not in my future, I do think there is value in analyzing different situations and scenarios that could take place on Saturday. As always, there are a handful of teams near the top of the draft that have several needs and will be forced to make a crucial pick or trade to maximize potential.
Hog Wild
Darren McFadden is widely regarded as not only the best running back in this year's draft, but the best overall talent to be selected on Saturday. The former Arkansas Razorback will undoubtedly be selected during the first hour of the draft, but the success of Minnesota’s No. 7 pick, Adrian Peterson, last year has certain teams entertaining the idea of moving up to select him.
McFadden will most definitely fall to the No. 3 spot considering St. Louis (No. 2) already has a great running back in Steven Jackson. This is where the battle for McFadden begins.
On the hot seat will be the Atlanta Falcons, who are emerging from one of the most turmoil-filled seasons the NFL has ever seen. The Falcons have glaring needs at almost every position, including running back, and can ill-afford to ‘miss’ with this pick.
Although McFadden is deemed to be a 'can't-miss' prospect at that position, he carries some character issues with him from college which is a red flag for a team exiting the public relations doghouse (pun intended). Expect the Falcons to address a different position while shopping the No. 3 pick to a team that covets McFadden.
With Al Davis and the Raiders sitting in the No. 4 hole there’s little chance that McFadden makes it to No. 5. Davis is notorious for drafting speed, ability and a big name regardless of team needs or logic.
The New York Jets know this and are sitting two spots behind Oakland at No. 6. McFadden has made visits to New York and apparently the Jets are enamored with the talented back increasing the likelihood of an Atlanta/New York swap. Considering the defensive line needs of Atlanta, this trade would make sense with three elite linemen on the board.
Changing feathers
Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan will make the leap from being an Eagle in college to a bird of another feather in the NFL. As they have control of McFadden's destination, the Falcons also hold Ryan’s fate in their talons. Thanks to Mike Vick, Atlanta is in desperate need of an effective and squeaky clean quarterback, which is the M.O. of Ryan. However, spending a lot of money on one high-profile position may not be in the best interests of an organization that needs players everywhere.
The aforementioned trade with the Jets would make sense for Atlanta as well, considering Ryan would likely be on the board at No. 6 where the Falcons could draft him at a cheaper price. The only concern would be dropping below the Chiefs at five.
The other outlook for Ryan involves a different species of bird, more specifically the Ravens at the No. 8 spot. Given the many needs of the teams at the top of the draft coupled with the expensive nature of the quarterback position, the Ravens could get lucky enough to have Ryan drop to them without having to make a move.
As mentioned, the Falcons and Chiefs are the only other teams ahead of the Ravens in need of a quarterback, but the risk that one of these two nab the former Eagle may be too great for Baltimore to bear. The Ravens may get very anxious come draft day and coax the Rams into parting with the No. 2 pick.
Don't sleep on Jerry
Jerry Jones that is. The owner of the Dallas Cowboys has an infatuation with Darren McFadden paralleled only to that of a 16-year-old girl with Ryan Seacrest. Jones and the Cowboys possess two late first round picks (No. 22 and No. 28) and reportedly contacted Miami in regards to the first overall pick.
The talk of Dallas trading the two picks to move up and select McFadden has subsided, but certain events could cause the running back to drop past the Jets at No. 6 and into the Patriots’ lap at No. 7. It's inconceivable to think New England would draft McFadden, but it’s perfectly logical to think the Pats would take two first round picks in exchange for the rights to him.
Each spot McFadden falls will further tempt Jerry Jones, increasing the possibility that the relentless owner will succumb to desire and pull the trigger for the Arkansas product.
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