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December 1, 2008

Week 14 Trends

By Jimmy Sirody
Don Best Senior Writer

The Dallas Cowboys (8-4, 6-6), after back-to-back home wins as double-digit favorites against San Francisco and Seattle, begin their stretch run Sunday at Pittsburgh (8-4, 6-5-1). The Cowboys might find the sledding a little tougher against a stingy Steelers defense that has held its last three opponents to 10 points.

Dallas has been a bust on the road against AFC teams in the role of underdog, coming up short in 13 of 16. The Cowboys are 7-16 ATS on the highway against non-conference foes overall.

Pittsburgh has struggled at Heinz Field, failing to get the green in four of six. The Steelers have floundered in 18 of their last 22 as home favorites of 3 1/2-points or less.

Dallas has eclipsed the 'total' in 16 of its last 23 as single-digit short-enders and Pittsburgh has been on the high side in 16 of 21 as home favorites of 3 1/2 points or less.

Trends and angles for the remainder of the Week 14 NFL schedule appear below.

RAIDERS (3-9, 5-7) at CHARGERS (4-8 SU&ATS)

San Diego will be looking to avoid its first four-game losing slide since 2003. The Chargers prevailed in the initial series clash this season as seven-point road favorites, 28-18. San Diego is 10-1 SU and ATS in its last 11 tries against Oakland and the favorite is 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS in the past 16 series tussles. The Raiders have dropped 19 of 24 spread decisions on the road in December. They are 3-15-1 ATS after losing SU as favorites. The 'under' is 15-4 in the last 19 duels at Qualcomm Stadium. The Chargers have dipped 'under' in 17 of 24 as division home chalk. Oakland has trickled 'under' in 12 of 15 after losing SU as favorites.

BENGALS (1-11, 4-8) at COLTS (8-4, 5-6-1)

Indianapolis has been no bargain at the RCA Dome this season, dropping four of five ATS. Cincinnati has 'covered' at a 21-13-1 clip on the road. The Bengals have snuck 'under' in 20 of 26 games as road dogs of seven points or more.

JAGUARS (4-7, 3-8 prior to Monday) at BEARS (6-6, 5-6-1)

Chicago seems to have all the trends on its side against Jacksonville. The Bears have 'covered' 18 of 25 at home against AFC opposition and they are 18-10 as non-division home favorites. They have also cashed 17 of 23 at Soldier Field after a double-digit road loss. The Jaguars have 'covered' 30 of their last 46 outside their division.

TEXANS (4-7 SU&ATS prior to Monday) at PACKERS (5-7, 7-5)

Houston has stumbled at an 18-27-1 clip versus non-division opponents. Green Bay has topped the 'total' in 18 of 28 December home games and been on the high side at a 17-8-1 rate after scoring 28 points or more. The Texans have bounced 'over in five of six as road dogs this season.

BROWNS (4-8, 5-5-2) at TENNESSEE (11-1, 10-2)

Cleveland is 13-6-1 as road dogs of seven points or more and has cashed four of five on the road this year. The Browns are 4-12 ATS after allowing 10 points or less while Tennessee is 4-12 ATS after scoring 28 points or more. Cleveland has knuckled 'under in 20 of 32 outside its division. The Titans have tiptoed 'over' at a 26-14-1 clip at home.

VIKINGS (7-5, 5-7) at LIONS (0-12, 4-8)

Minnesota struggled to beat Detroit at the Metrodome as 12-point favorites, 12-10. The Lions have 'covered' 20 of their last 26 at home in double-revenge mode. They are also 34-18 ATS after losing by 15 points or more and 18-11 ATS at home after scoring 10 or less. The Vikings have flopped in 10 of their last 13 as division road favorites. These NFC North rivals have eclipsed the number at a 12-4-1 clip at Ford Field. Minnesota has been on the high side in five of its last six games and Detroit in six of its last seven. The Lions have also stormed 'over' in nine of their last 10 December duels.

SKINS (7-5, 5-6-1) at RAVENS (8-4, 9-3)

Baltimore is 17-2 ATS as non-division favorites off a SU win. The Ravens have also cashed 14 of 20 as favorites versus the NFC and 32 of 45 at home against non-division foes. Washington has clicked at a 3-1-1 clip on the road this season ATS. The Redskins have strayed 'under at a 13-4-1 pace versus AFC teams. Baltimore has skipped 'over' in six of its last seven appearances.

EAGLES (6-5-1, 6-6) at GIANTS (11-1, 9-3)

The New York Giants whipped Philadelphia in the first meeting this season as three-point road favorites, 36-31. The Eagles have cashed 25 of 33 avenging a loss by seven points or less. The dog is 5-1 in the past six series showdowns. Philadelphia is 20-11 on the road against division rivals and 8-2 as road dogs. The defending champs are 22-7 ATS off a double-digit division win and 22-11 ATS at the Meadowlands after allowing 10 points or less. Ten of the last 13 series shakedowns at Giants Stadium have trickled 'under.' The Eagles have zipped 'over' in 17 of 22 as dogs while New York has dipped 'under' in 16 of 23 as division home favorites.

FALCONS (8-4 SU&ATS) at SAINTS (6-6, 8-4)

New Orleans will be looking to avenge a 34-20 loss at Atlanta. The Falcons have cashed 20 of 32 against the Saints overall and 18 of their last 21 in the Big Easy. New Orleans is 5-1 at home this season, but it has come up short in 12 of its last 14 as division favorites at the Superdome.

JETS (8-4, 7-5) at 49ERS (4-8, 6-6)

The New York Jets are 4-16 SU and 6-14 ATS on the road versus non-division foes. The Jets have 'covered' six straight on the road in December and eight of nine off a double-digit loss. San Francisco has failed to get the green in four of six at home. New York has dribbled 'under' in 21 of 32 as non-conference favorites.

DOLPHINS (7-5, 5-7) versus BILLS (6-6, 5-7) @ Toronto

Buffalo had won and 'covered' eight straight against Miami until coming up short in the first meeting of the season as two-point road favorites, 25-16. The Dolphins are 8-18 ATS versus a division rival after a SU road win. They have also dropped 16 of their last 21 spread decisions versus AFC East foes.

CHIEFS (2-10, 6-6) at BRONCOS (7-5, 5-7)

Kansas City upset Denver as 9 1/2-point home dogs in the initial clash. The home team has won 15 of 17 and cashed 13 of the last 16 series scuffles. The Broncos are 13-7-2 as division home favorites but they have stumbled in 21 of 27 as favorites overall. The 'over' is 11-3 in the past 14 encounters.

RAMS (2-10, 4-8) at CARDS (7-5 SU&ATS)

Arizona trounced St. Louis in the first confrontation as three-point favorites, 34-13. The Rams are 6-19 ATS avenging a same season setback. However, the Cardinals are just 1-8 as home favorites of 7 1/2 to 14 points and 7-16 ATS as division home chalk. The SU winner is 16-4 ATS in the last 20 tussles. St. Louis has tipped 'over' at a 15-8-1 rate as double-digit dogs and Arizona has been on the high side in nine of its last 10 in December.

PATRIOTS (7-5, 6-6) at SEAHAWKS (2-10, 4-7-1)

New England is 11-3-1 ATS on the road when facing an NFC opponent. The Patriots have also cashed 23 of 29 off a SU loss and 16 of 21 after allowing 28 points or more. Seattle is 1-4-1 ATS at home this season. The Seahawks have gone 'over' in 11 of 15 as non-conference pups.

BUCS (9-3, 7-5) at PANTHERS (9-3, 6-5-1)

Tampa Bay will be looking to win five straight for the first time since 2002. The Bucs breezed by Carolina as three-point favorites in the first clash this season, 27-3. The Panthers are 19-8 ATS avenging a same season loss. Carolina has 'covered' nine of 14 against Tampa Bay and 35 of its last 54 in December. The underdog has barked in nine of the past 13 encounters. Eleven of 13 meetings have slipped 'under', including seven of eight at Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers have stayed on the low side in eight straight games versus division foes at home and in eight straight after winning by six points or less.

Check out our NFL odds and matchup reports.

For in-depth matchup reports, check out FOXSHEETS.

 

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