AFC West Preview

By Steve Herzog
Don Best Associate Editor

Not too long ago the AFC West was the best division in the conference. The Broncos, Raiders and Chiefs always seemed to have solid squads and the Chargers would float into contention every so often. But things have changed in the West. Now, only the Chargers can be considered a power in the division.

There is little question the Chargers have a real chance at making a Super Bowl run this season. The Broncos have been very disappointing over the last few seasons and it's starting to look like Mike Shanahan might finally be wearing out his welcome. The Raiders have improved their talent level from last season but they are still very far away from competing for anything in the AFC, and the Chiefs are clearly in rebuilding mode.

San Diego Chargers
Projected Record: 12-4

Things couldn't have started out worse for the Chargers last year. After dumping Marty Schottenheimer and picking up Norv Turner to be the team's head coach, San Diego got off to a rough start for a team expected to contend. The Chargers were 5-5 after 10 games and many were laying the blame at Turner's feet.

The Chargers found a way to come together toward the end of the season and won their final six regular season games. They then beat the Titans at home in the Wild Card round of the playoffs before heading to Indianapolis and defeating the defending champs for the second time on the season. The Chargers' run came to an end the next week with a tough 21-12 loss in New England in the AFC Championship Game, but the tone had been set for the upcoming year.

Don't expect the Chargers to stumble early this season. While five of their first eight games are on the road, they should be comfortable favorites in each of their first five games. They will face a tough stretch leading up to their bye week in Week 9 though, as they will play the Patriots at home in Week 6 before heading on the road to face the Bills and Saints respectively.

With a full year under Turner's system, the Chargers' offense should be pretty scary this year. Phillip Rivers proved his toughness to his teammates as well as the rest of the league with his playoff performance last year and should be primed for a breakout season along the lines of two other quarterbacks from his draft class, Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger.

Rivers has some terrific weapons at his disposal, including the best running back in football in LaDainian Tomlinson. While some New Yorkers might still have trouble referring to him as "LT", there is little doubt this LT is just as big an impact player as the other LT was during his career.

Tomlinson has rushed for at least 1,335 yards in each of his seven years in the NFL, including 1,474 last season to go with his 15 touchdowns on the ground. Tomlinson actually had a soft year last season, at least compared to what he did in 2006 when he rushed for 1,815 yards and scored 28 rushing touchdowns.

In addition to the best running back in the league, the Chargers also have the best tight end in Antonio Gates, who had 75 catches for 984 yards and nine touchdowns last season. The acquisition of wide receiver Chris Chambers from the Dolphins during last year gives the Chargers a legitimate No. 1 wideout and young, explosive Vincent Jackson continues to improve and give the Chargers a deep threat.

Defensively, the Chargers allowed just under 18 points per game last season, fourth in the AFC, and are led by Shawne Merriman and cornerback Antonio Cromartie, who led the league with 10 interceptions. The heart of the San Diego defense is their strong line, led by end Luis Castillo and Jamal Williams, who may be the best run-stopping nose tackle in the league when healthy.

Denver Broncos
Projected Record: 7-9

After a disappointing and injury-prone 2007, the Broncos retooled their offense, especially at wide receiver but it doesn't look like they've done enough to become real contenders in the AFC.

The Broncos will rely heavily on quarterback Jay Cutler this season. Cutler is entering his third year in the league and had a solid 2007, throwing for nearly 3,500 yards to go with 20 touchdowns against just 14 interceptions, good for a rating of 88.1. What makes his numbers even more impressive is the fact that he was dealing with diabetes, which limited him.

While the disease will never go away, this season, Cutler is prepared. He should continue to grow as he gets even more comfortable in the NFL and with his diabetes treatments. He also has some new receivers to throw to, including Keary Colbert and veteran Darrell Jackson, who will help replace oft-injured Javon Walker. Brandon Marshall is penciled in as the team's number one wideout. Marshall is a supremely talented head case and could be the Broncos top offensive weapon if he could ever stop getting in trouble.

At running back, the Broncos head into camp with Selvin Young as the starter. Young was terrific last season rushing for 729 yards on 140 carries, good for an average of 5.2. That said, it remains to be seen whether Young can deal with the pounding of being an every down back. Head coach Mike Shanahan has a reputation for getting great production from no-name running backs throughout his career and he will need to prove it again this year. Journeyman Michael Pittman was brought in to back up Young.

In the past, when the Broncos' running game was hitting on all gears, Denver had a great offensive line. But last year the line was weak. The Broncos tried to help the problem by using their first round pick on left tackle Ryan Clady from Boise State.

On the other side of the ball, the Broncos have two great cornerbacks, speedy outside linebackers, a great young pass rusher in Elvis Dumervil and not much else.

The Broncos have been importing disappointing defensive linemen from other teams for years now and they continued the trend this offseason by bringing Dewayne Robertson from the Jets.

The seeming lack of respect the Broncos have for defensive tackles has really hurt the team defensively in recent seasons. Last year, the Broncos finished 14th in the AFC and 30th in the entire league in rush defense, allowing 142.6 yards per game on the ground and 4.6 yards per carry.

Over the offseason the Broncos really didn't do anything to improve those numbers, unless you count the signing of former Seahawks backup linebacker Niko Koutouvides, who will probably be the team's starting middle linebacker. He will be joined by DJ Williams and Boss Bailey, the team's speedy outside backers.

Cornerbacks Dre Bly and Champ Bailey are still terrific, although Bailey did take a step back last season. That said, with the Broncos awful run defense, why would opponents even try to throw toward them?

The Broncos are not a bad team, but they aren't really that good either. Their success will be predicated on the running game, both on offense and defense, and if things don't go well, this season could spell the beginning of the end for Shanahan.

Oakland Raiders
Projected Record: 5-11

It's hard to believe that we are coming up on six seasons since the Raiders mattered, but it is. Over the last five seasons, the Raiders are an atrocious 19-61, including an improvement to 4-12 last season.

The fact that the Raiders, one of the premiere franchises in a league that prides itself on parity, have been so bad for so long is shocking and somewhat hard to believe. After all, with the draft and salary cap, the NFL is built for teams to improve dramatically year-to-year. But the Raiders are so mismanaged and out of touch they haven't been able to take advantage of the system.

There is some reason for hope in Oakland though. Those bad records have led to high draft picks, including the top pick in last year's draft, quarterback JaMarcus Russell and this year's No. 4 overall selection, running back Darren McFadden.

Russell will be counted on to take the helm for the Raiders this season after a poor rookie campaign. After missing training camp, Russell didn't enter a game until Week 13 against the Broncos. On the season, he completed just 36 of 66 passes for 373 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions.

His best game was in the last one of the season, a 30-17 loss to the Chargers in which he went 23-31 for 224 yards, one touchdown and one pick. If Russell can keep his weight down and his head in the game, he obviously has a world of talent.

Russell will have free agent signing Javon Walker, who had an interesting offseason, to throw to, along with veteran Ronald Curry on the outside. The Raiders should have some strong options in the backfield with incumbent Justin Fargas and rookie McFadden, who could be this year's Adrian Peterson.

Defensively, the Raiders made some notable moves during the offseason bringing in big name players like defensive tackle Tommy Kelly, cornerback DeAngelo Hall and safety Gibril Wilson. Whether these acquisitions can help remains to be seen. Last year the Raiders ranked second to last in the league in rush defense and allowed 25 points per game which was 26th in the league and ahead of only Miami and Denver in the AFC.

Kansas City Chiefs
Projected Record: 5-11

Over the last decade or so, up until last season, the Chiefs had a terrific home-field advantage, a strong offensive line and an opportunistic defense which helped them remain a solid franchise capable of making the playoffs every year.

Last year things changed dramatically. The Chiefs lost six of their eight home games, were -11 in turnover margin and their offensive line allowed a whopping 55 sacks, which was the most in the AFC and tied the 49ers for most in the NFL.

It's rebuilding time for the Chiefs and they started in a big way with two first round picks and six total picks in the first 82 selections of April's draft. By all accounts, the Chiefs did well, getting defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey and offensive lineman Brandon Albert in the first round. Both should be immediate starters.

The team is also expecting big things from second round pick Brandon Flowers from Virginia Tech, who could start at cornerback opposite Patrick Surtain.

The rest of the Chiefs' defense looks to be a bit old and slow, aside from defensive end Tamba Hali, who could be a star, and weak-side backer Derrick Johnson, who may finally be coming into his own. Head coach Herm Edwards will look for rookies to unseat such veterans as linebackers Napoleon Harris and Donnie Edwards as the season wears on, if not sooner.

Offensively the Chiefs will have Larry Johnson back in the fold after missing the last eight games of the season in 2007. The Chiefs lost each of those games without Johnson which gives some idea just how much he means to the team.

Aside from his wealth of talent, the biggest reason Johnson is so valuable to the Chiefs is the weak quarterback situation. Damon Huard and Brodie Croyle split time last year and neither set the world on fire. As a team, the Chiefs had a QB rating of 73.0, 13th in the AFC, while throwing 17 touchdowns against 20 interceptions. Because they were losing so much, the Chiefs attempted the third-most passes in the AFC, but they were so bad they were just eighth in the conference in passing yards.

With Larry Johnson's return and the hoped for improvement on the KC's offensive line, those numbers might improve but there is an awful long way to go before the Chiefs reach respectability. Dwayne Bowe, who had an outstanding rookie year, and future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez will once again be the Chiefs' top two targets, no matter who is behind center.

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