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AFC East Preview
By Steve Herzog
Don Best Associate Editor
The AFC East, like the rest of the AFC, has been dominated by the New England Patriots over the last few seasons. But as the new season dawns, optimism reigns for the other teams in the division.
The Bills have a young, talented nucleus looking to build on a solid 2007 season. The Jets opened their wallet and improved themselves at the point of attack, both on offense and defense, and the Dolphins simply can't be as putrid as they were last season.
While we expect the Patriots to dominate the division once again, the Jets and Bills look to be teams that will fight for a Wild Card spot in the loaded AFC. All the teams in the AFC East, except for the Patriots, can expect to have more wins than last season thanks to relatively easy schedules.
The AFC East will take on the awful NFC West this season and each team will also get to play the AFC West, which looks to have just one good team. If the Jets or Bills can dominate play outside of their division, they could join the Patriots in the playoffs. Here's a look at the way we see them finishing in the AFC East.
New England Patriots
Projected Record: 13-3
They will not go 16-0 during the regular season this year, but the Patriots will be among the best teams in football when all is said and done and will probably have clinched this division by the beginning of December.
Of course, for New England, it all starts with Tom Brady and the Pats' incredible passing game. Brady shattered the record books last year and will have another huge season, provided he stays healthy. An injury to Brady seems to be the only thing that could derail the Patriots, but that seems unlikely thanks to the Pats' offensive line, which may be the best in the game, last year's Super Bowl performance notwithstanding.
Throw in Randy Moss, who may have had the most explosive season ever by a wide receiver last year, Wes Welker, who led the Pats in receptions and versatile, and athletic tight end Ben Watson and New England has the best group of weapons in the league. But the best weapon for the Pats this season may be running back Laurence Maroney.
Maroney was injured last season, missing three games completely and used sparingly in others. But as the season wore on, Maroney got healthier and became an important part of the offense, rushing for 835 on 185 carries, good for a 4.5 average and six touchdowns. Expect Maroney to crush the 1,000-yard mark this season as he comes into the campaign healthy.
New England also tried to run up scores last year, putting up some ridiculous numbers and continuing to pass in games that had long been decided. Don't be surprised if Head Coach Bill Belichick eases off the gas a bit this season and allows Maroney to gain some yards while the Patriots run out the clock.
Defensively the Patriots are loaded up front, with Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren. The Pats also took some steps to get quicker in their back seven, drafting linebacker Jerod Mayo in the first round and signing free agent Victor Hobson. But they also let top cornerback Asante Samuel leave town, replacing him with the likes of Jason Webster and Fernando Bryant.
The Patriots are obviously a great team and it would come as no surprise if they were to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl again, just don't expect them to flirt with perfection again this year.
Buffalo Bills
Projected Record: 9-7
The Bills are a very intriguing team for a number of reasons. They have, maybe, the fastest receiver in the league in Lee Evans, a young, dependable workhorse running back in Marshawn Lynch and possibly the best young offensive tackle in football in Jason Peters.
They also possess a lethal return game on special teams with Roscoe Parrish returning punts and Terrence McGee bringing back kick-offs. But the Bills face the toughest schedule in the division and will need to overcome some growing pains to be a real contender in the AFC.
While the AFC East in general got a scheduling break, the Bills certainly did not. While most of the teams they play are in common with others in AFC East, the scheduling is not. The Bills play teams that they should beat, like St. Louis, Arizona, Kansas City and Denver, all on the road. And they have a home schedule which features Seattle, San Diego and Cleveland. That's in addition to facing the Patriots twice.
The Bills will need to close games better than they did last year when they lost a number of games in the last minute to overcome their tough schedule and make a playoff run.
Defensively, the Bills looked to improve their rush defense over the offseason with the signing of Marcus Stroud. Stroud will join Aaron Schobel, Chris Kelsey and Kyle Williams to form a strong defensive line.
With a young quarterback still trying to prove himself in Trent Edwards, a mediocre secondary and a lack of depth throughout the roster, the Bills are still a year or two from truly contending, but they should have an interesting year.
New York Jets
Projected Record: 9-7
The promise of the 2006 season was followed up by a wretched 2007 and Head Coach Eric Mangini was "Mangenius" no more. Following their 4-12 debacle, the Jets decided that it was time to win now, so they went out and signed a number of free agents.
Guard Alan Faneca and tackle Damien Woody should help shore up the offensive line, which was among the worst in the NFL last season. And nose tackle Kris Jenkins, although old in football years, should be a significant upgrade from Dwayne Robertson. The signing of Calvin Pace and the drafting of Vernon Ghoulston will help an almost non-existent pass rush, which in turn, should help New York's young secondary and linebacking corps.
With all of their improvements, the success of the Jets' season will hinge on their quarterback play. It was a two-horse race heading into training camp, with veteran Chad Pennington competing against Kellen Clemens but the Jets made a huge move on August 6th, acquiring Brett Favre from the Packers.
The fact that Clemens was a second round pick just a couple of years ago, is the reason he will be kept around as the team's second string signal caller.Of course, having Favre on the roster immediately upgrades the Jets passing game and could make them a contender this season.
Even before they had solved their quarterback issues, the Jets figured to be a better offensive team primarily due to the improvement of the offensive line. The Jets will look to control games by using their running game, which should be better with a healthy Thomas Jones, along with Leon Washington and Leon Chatman backing him up.
Also, don't underestimate the acquisition of lead blocking fullback Tony Richardson, who should open some holes if he can stay healthy.
Miami Dolphins
Projected Record: 4-12
While the Patriots can't possibly be as good as they were last year, the Dolphins can't be as bad, can they?
The Dolphins only win of 2007 came in Week 15 in an overtime win against the Ravens. But Miami played a number of close games that didn't work out for them, losing six games by three points or less on their way to a 1-15 record.
Not only is it a completely new season for Miami, it's a completely new regime. Bill Parcells continues his tour around the NFL, stopping in Miami this time. But he won't be on the sidelines. Parcells is now the one "buying the groceries" for his new head coach, Tony Sparano.
Sparano is a coaching lifer who has done well everywhere he's coached and Parcells seems to know something about finding head coaches. Some head coaches who've worked under Parcells include Belichek, Giants coach Tom Coughlin and Saints head man Sean Payton, to name a few.
With a couple of young, unproven quarterbacks on the roster, the Dolphins will rely heavily on their running game, which should be improved thanks to the return of Ronnie Brown from injury. Brown was off to a great start last season before getting injured Week 7 against the Patriots and missing the rest of the season.
Brown is a big, fast back who can score from anywhere on the field, and if Rickey Williams can make good on his latest return to the NFL, Miami could have a very strong ground game.
Josh McCown was the lone veteran quarterback on the roster until the Dolphins signed Chad Pennington on August 9th. Barring injury, Pennington will be the starter for Miami when the season begins. The Dolphins have two prospective quarterbacks of the future in John Beck and Chad Henne.
Beck played sparingly last year and wasn't particularly impressive when he played, but he will be given a chance to win the starting job, as will Henne, the team's second round pick out of Michigan.
Defensively this will be a very different Dolphins team than we have seen primarily because Jason Taylor and Zack Thomas are no longer around. Taylor was recently traded to Washington for a second round pick and Thomas headed to Dallas earlier in the offseason. The revamped defense will be led by veteran linebacker Joey Porter, defensive tackle Jason Ferguson (an imported Parcells favorite) and middle linebacker Channing Crowder.
It will be another long year for the Dolphins, but they have a real chance at quadrupling last year's win total if they can run the ball, limit their mistakes and play sound, fundamental football. It will be a big challenge for Sparano and his new staff but a relatively easy schedule, which includes home games against the Ravens, Raiders and 49ers, should help.
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