NCAAF Bowl Trends

By Jimmy Sirody
Don Best Senior Writer

Handicapping bowl games can be a tough proposition. One has to weed out those teams that are excited to be going to a bowl game and those teams that are "settling" for the bowl experience.

However, in one area, the postseason is essentially no different than the regular season. In the last three years of bowl games, the straight up winner is 70-20-2 against the spread, winning 77.7 percent of the time. Determine the winner of the game and the money will follow.

The designated "Home Team" has owned a decent ATS edge over the last four bowl seasons, 'covering' 69 of 119, good for 58 percent.

During the last postseason campaign, favorites were able to reverse a recent trend of underdog domination by going 24-8 SU and 18-14 ATS. Double-digit dogs are always worth a look; big pups are 33-23-2 (58.9 percent) since 1992.

When the 'total' was 60 or higher in the postseason last year, the 'over' cashed at a 9-3 clip. The average output in those games was 73.7 points per game.

Below are trends and angles for the BCS title game.

FLORIDA (12-1, 10-2) - OKLAHOMA (12-1, 10-2) - BCS CHAMPIONSHIP

Florida is 7-0 ATS versus very good offensive teams averaging 34+PPG. Oklahoma has cashed eight straight after scoring 50 points or more. The favorite is 6-1 in the Gators' last seven bowl games when not facing the Big Ten. The Sooners have floundered in four of their last five BCS appearances (0-4 ATS), allowing 41.8 points per game in the process. Florida has zipped 'over' at a 7-1-1 clip and OU has eclipsed the 'total' in nine straight after scoring 31 points or more in four straight games.

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