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October 24, 2008

World Series Game 3: Rays (Garza) at Phillies (Moyer)

By Jimmy Sirody
Don Best senior writer

The World Series moves to Philadelphia for three games, hopefully beginning Saturday night, with the advantage tilted towards the Tampa Bay Rays starting pitchers, at least until Cole Hamels starts again.

After losing three of the previous four playoff games and home-field advantage to the Phillies, the Rays bounced back to even the Fall Classic at 1-1 with a 4-2 victory on Thursday at Tropicana Field. Tampa Bay once again proved it is often at its best within hours of having been at its worst.

The Rays outplayed Philadelphia in nearly every facet of the game, while the NL champs continued their woeful struggles in the clutch.

However, it's a testament to the Phillies pitching staff and the depth of their lineup that they are 8-3 in the postseason despite little contribution from Ryan Howard, the man who may be the National League's most valuable player and his team's least valuable player in the playoffs.

The Rays are familiar with neutralizing left-handed sluggers having held Boston's David Ortiz to four hits (and one homer) in 26 at-bats in their seven game triumph over the Red Sox in the ALCS.

Howard shouldn't have to take all the blame for the Phillies offensive slump. Shortstop Jimmy Rollins is hitless in 10 at bats, and left fielder Pat Burrell is 0-for-6 and has yet to hit the ball out of the infield in two games.

Philadelphia is hoping a return home for the first World Series game in Philly in 15 years will be the boost the offense needs.

The Phillies have won all eight games this postseason when scoring three or more runs, but are now 0-3 when scoring two runs or less. They went 1-for-15 with runners in scoring position Thursday, and are now 1-for-28 with ducks on the pond in the Series.

Philadelphia will need to play up to the comforts of home to erase the foul taste of what could have been.

As the Series shifts north and outdoors, weather will become a factor. The National Weather Service calls for a 90 percent chance of rain in Philadelphia during the day Saturday, with "rain likely" at night.

Tampa Bay, the same team that mashed 16 homers and slugged .508 as a team in the ALCS, is batting .207, slugging .276 and has one home run in the World Series - from a guy (Carl Crawford) who hadn't homered since June.

The Phillies will start 45-year-old antique Jamie Moyer and the Rays will counter with ALCS MVP Matt Garza, weather permitting.

Garza dominated the Red Sox in the ALCS, posting a 1.38 ERA in two starts. Tampa Bay has come up short in four of his last five road starts and in seven of eight following a quality outing.

Moyer is coming off his worst outing of the year in the NLCS, allowing six runs over 1 1/3 innings in Game 3. That followed just eight days after he lasted just four innings in a Division Series loss to Milwaukee.

The Rays have won seven of their last eight against National League lefties, but they have come up short in 11 of their last 15 on the road against southpaws overall.

Philadelphia has won 22 of its last 28 at Citizens Bank Park, including four straight in the postseason. The Phillies have also won five of six following a loss and four of five at home with Moyer on the bump.

Tampa Bay has been on the low side in its last four trips to the post and in five of six against NL southpaws. The Rays have eclipsed the 'total' in eight of their last 11 on the road.

Philadelphia has dipped 'under' in nine of its last dozen postseason appearances and in eight of its last 11 overall.

Most offshore books opened Tampa Bay as $1.10 favorites in Game 3 with the 'total' set at 9 1/2 ('under' minus $1.20).

Check out our MLB odds and matchup reports.

For in-depth matchup reports, check out FOXSHEETS.

 


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